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Prediction for CME (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-11T10:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42621/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME first seen to the NE by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-11-11T10:23Z, as well as to the NW by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131. Wide opening field lines and a large EUV wave and instance of dimming is visible in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195, along with post eruptive arcades visible in GOES SUVI 131 and 195. The arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-12T18:52Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 19nT at 2025-11-12T18:52Z to about 40nT at 2025-11-12T19:00Z. The magnetic field parameters were previously enhanced due to the interplanetary shock starting at 2025-11-11T22:11Z. An increase in solar wind speed from about 580 km/s to 820 km/s was observed starting at about 2025-11-12T19:45Z after a brief period of unreliably low solar wind speed data which had occurred during the initial shock arrival. An increase in temperature was seen starting at 2025-11-12T19:45Z from about 71,000 K to about 764,000 K. A significant increase in temperature was observed starting at 2025-11-12T21:55Z, which may have been erroneous or unreliable data. A corresponding sudden increase in density was observed at 2025-11-12T19:41Z from about 4 p/cc to a peak value of 24 p/cc at 2025-11-12T19:49Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T18:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-13T05:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51111
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Nov 2025, 1254UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Nov 2025  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2025  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 051 PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2025  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours. Eight numbered sunspot groups were on the disk. The largest flare was an X5.1 event that peaked at 10:04 UTC on 11 Nov from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274) at N23 W23. A Type II radio emission was observed around 10:40 UTC, which is associated with the X5.1 flare. Two M-class flares were also produced by this region: an M1.5 at 19:57 UTC on
10 Nov and an M1.4 at 08:09 UTC on 11 Nov. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A full halo CME was observed on 10 Nov following the X1.2 flare (SIDC CME 559) from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274).
The true radial speed is estimated at about 1300 km/s. The arrival of the associated interplanetary shock at Earth is expected late on 11 Nov to early on 12 Nov. A Type II radio emission alert was observed at 10:40 UTC on 11 Nov. This burst is associated with the X5.1 flare that peaked at
10:04 UTC from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274). Type II bursts are typically linked to shock-driven eruptions and often indicate an accompanying CME, from this an estimated shock speed of 1350 km/s was given. However, speed estimates from radiospectrography carry methodological uncertainties and should be treated as preliminary. Further analysis is ongoing as additional coronagraph imagery becomes available to refine the true speed and assess any Earth-directed component.

Lead Time: 22.05 hour(s)
Difference: -10.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-11T20:49Z

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